WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Kamala Harris, soundly rejected by voters in the 2024 presidential election, nevertheless holds an early advantage over two leading Republicans in hypothetical matchups for the White House in 2028, according to a new national poll.
The Zogby Analytics survey released in July 2026 found Harris leading Vice President JD Vance by five percentage points, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Harris also held a five-point advantage over Secretary of State Marco Rubio, leading him 46 percent to 41 percent.
The results offer an encouraging sign for Harris and a potential warning for Republicans, but they fall far short of predicting who will win an election that remains more than two years away.
None of the three possible contenders has formally secured a party nomination, the primary fields remain unsettled and voters have not yet experienced the second half of President Donald Trump’s current term.
Harris would also have to overcome the baggage of her 2024 defeat.
Trump defeated Harris in the 2024 election and returned to the White House for a second term. Harris, who became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden withdrew from the contest, was unable to hold together the coalition that elected Biden four years earlier.
Despite that loss, Harris retains nationwide name recognition, an established fundraising network and support among many Democratic voters. Those advantages could make her a formidable candidate in a crowded Democratic primary.
The Zogby results suggest Harris may also benefit from continued political polarization. In the matchup against Vance, she led among women, younger adults, Black voters, Hispanic voters, independents and political moderates.
Vance performed best among older voters, white voters, Protestants, married voters, conservatives and populists.
The poll reportedly showed Harris leading Vance by eight points among independents and 22 points among moderates—two groups that could become decisive in a close general election.
However, Harris is far from assured of winning the Democratic nomination.
Other possible Democratic contenders include California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Separate 2026 polling has produced a much different picture of the Democratic primary. One national Emerson College survey placed Buttigieg and Newsom ahead of Harris among Democratic voters, demonstrating how uncertain the party’s field remains.
Harris may begin with greater name recognition than many of her rivals, but that familiarity can cut both ways. Nearly every voter already has an opinion of her, leaving fewer undecided Americans for her to persuade.
The Republican contest appears increasingly likely to revolve around Vance and Rubio.
Vance enters the early maneuvering as Trump’s vice president and the candidate most closely identified with the president’s populist “Make America Great Again” movement.
He won 53 percent of the vote in a March 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference presidential straw poll. Rubio finished second with 35 percent, a substantial increase from his showing at the gathering one year earlier.
That CPAC result was not a representative national poll, but it offered a snapshot of support among conservative activists.
Rubio’s position as secretary of state has given him an international platform and an opportunity to build foreign-policy credentials. His appeal may extend to traditional conservatives, national-security voters and Republicans looking for a more conventional successor to Trump.
Vance, meanwhile, could argue that he is the natural heir to the political movement Trump built.
A Vance-Rubio primary contest could force Republican voters to choose between two prominent members of the same administration. The eventual nominee would also need to decide whether to embrace every part of Trump’s record or establish an independent identity.
Trump cannot be elected president again under the 22nd Amendment, which limits a person to two presidential election victories.
The 2028 election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.
The winner will inherit responsibility for the economy, immigration enforcement, federal spending, American military commitments, relations with China and Russia, the aftermath of conflicts in the Middle East and the accelerating effects of artificial intelligence on employment and national security.
Control of the Supreme Court could also be at stake. The next president may have opportunities to nominate justices and reshape the federal judiciary for decades.
Domestic questions surrounding abortion, health care, taxes, energy production, education, gun laws and the powers of the federal government will provide an equally sharp contrast between the parties.
Before reaching the general election, however, the candidates must survive presidential primaries beginning in early 2028 and secure their parties’ nominations at the national conventions.
Political conditions can change dramatically before then.
Wars, recessions, scandals, legislative victories, criminal cases, candidate debates and the results of the 2026 midterm elections could all reshape the field. Candidates who appear dominant today may never enter the race, while lesser-known governors or members of Congress could emerge rapidly.
Early presidential polls generally measure name recognition, party loyalty and current attitudes more than they forecast an election years in the future.
The Zogby survey nevertheless shows that Harris cannot be dismissed after her 2024 defeat. In the two matchups tested, she begins with an advantage over the Republicans most often discussed as potential successors to Trump.
For Vance and Rubio, the message is equally clear: inheriting Trump’s political movement would not automatically deliver the White House.