Few political positions offer as much job security as Iowa’s governorship, especially if the incumbent is a Republican.
No sitting GOP governor has lost since 1962. In 2010, Chet Culver became the first ousted Democratic governor since 1938. But of Iowa’s last six U.S. senators to seek re-election, four — John Culver, Dick Clark, Jack Miller and Roger Jepsen — were defeated.
In the 56 years since Harold Hughes beat Gov. Norman Erbe, three incumbent presidents — Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — were booted.
Gov. Kim Reynolds has significant advantages over Fred Hubbell, but the coming months could be game-changers. Between Jan. 1 and June 1, Hubbell contributed nearly $3 million to his campaign and raised almost $4 million more, while Reynolds raised $1.3 million. Gov. Reynolds has $4.2 million on hand, while Hubbell’s campaign, overall, has spent nearly $7 million.
Hubbell will invest even more and raise even higher amounts in the remaining 22 weeks. He’s in it to win it. Hubbell’s family once owned the home that’s now the governor’s mansion, Terrace Hill. Keeping him out won’t be easy.
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Democrats are livid with Republicans for privatizing Medicaid, reining in Iowa’s public employee unions on collective bargaining, cutting taxes, and promoting abortion-limiting legislation that Reynolds signed. Her results-oriented leadership benefits workers and taxpayers, but Democrats understand that politicians represent VOTERS.
Not since Clyde Herring in 1934 has a Democratic gubernatorial nominee been so ensconced in the Des Moines business milieu, where Hubbell is as well-known as he is among the constituencies comprising his party’s base. This includes trial lawyers, the Iowa State Education Association, leftist students, pro-sanctuary cities activists, environmentalists, unionized public employees, social workers, gun-control proponents, organized labor, Planned Parenthood, community organizers, university faculty members and Obama fans.
They revile President Trump and his agenda, and Iowa’s new, GOP-crafted Voter ID law. They’re eager to avenge Hillary Clinton’s loss and go all-out. The liberals that Hubbell demolished are about as popular in Iowa business circles as Rosie O’Donnell and Al Sharpton would be at an NRA gun show. But retaining his business support may prove dicey.
Terry Branstad’s 2014, 1994, 1990 and 1986 challengers received, respectively, 37.3, 41.5, 38.5, and 48 percent of the vote. This fall, each contender could exceed 48.5 percent.
The Reynolds-Gregg campaign must remind voters of the sound reasons why Iowa was recently chosen as America’s No. 1 state in which to live, work and raise a family. This well-deserved designation, bestowed by the respected U.S. News & World Report magazine, considers relevant factors such as health care (where Iowa ranks No. 3, up from No. 5 in 2017) and education, where Iowa ranks fifth, up from eighth. Iowa also ranks first in infrastructure (from 18th last year) and sixth for low unemployment and GDP growth. Iowa’s 2017 overall ranking was sixth. These impressive rankings impose formidable hurdles for Hubbell.
Pro-life and pro-gun voters overwhelmingly favor Reynolds, and their Get Out the Vote expertise may prove decisive. But payback-minded, organized Democrats who abhor the GOP tax cuts and other conservative legislation will also be out in force.
Insiders from both camps say that Reynolds is ahead of Hubbell in their internal polling. But her edge isn’t even close to what Branstad had over Jack Hatch at this stage in 2014, or Gov. Tom Vilsack had on Doug Gross in 2002, or Branstad’s leads over his 1990 and 1994 challengers.
Since 1964, whenever Iowa governors have run for re-election, whoever was ahead on Labor Day inevitably won. But in 2018, the winner may be unknown until very late on Nov. 6.
Todd Blodgett, of Clear Lake, served on the Reagan-Bush White House staff and on the 1988 Bush-Quayle presidential campaign. He also worked for the Republican National Committee and the FBI.
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Good read! There currently is no reason to NOT vote for Governor Reynolds. Iowa is doing well under her administration.
I tend to agree with Todd on the outcome of Iowa’s gubernatorial race. The street talk is many Democrats are turned off on current agenda polices of the far left wing of the party that is in control. Many have become Trump supporters and left the party also!
IMO, Reynolds has more than a 50% chance of being re-elected Governor.
Slick move, Mr. B, getting the Register to run a Republican ad that masqueraded as a column.
Very clever of you. Lee Atwater would be proud.
Nonetheless, I agree with your analysis. I just hope that Hubbell wins, as do most of my fellow attorneys. Some times, Todd, it takes a rich guy to do what is best for the average Joe and Jane.
Hubbell takes it !!