DES MOINES – The director of a liberal Iowa political group says Governor Terry Branstad is misleading Iowans on job numbers, one of his key re-election points in 2010.
According to Matt Sinovic, Director of Progress Iowa, since taking office in January of 2011, Governor Terry Branstad has been engaged in an effort to deceive his constituents about Iowa’s job market, to cover up for his failed promise to create 200,000 jobs. In recent months, the Governor’s shifting claims about the number of jobs created in Iowa have become even further out of touch with reality.
The Branstad administration’s campaign of deception began with the invention of a new statistic, “gross over the month employment gains.” That figure ignores any jobs lost, and only counts jobs gained. In other words, if one Iowan is hired three times and laid off three times, the Governor would count that one person for three jobs. This new figure provides only a dishonest and political accounting of job growth, and is not recognized by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Perhaps because his administration’s math is not reality-based, the Governor’s claims about job growth have shifted by significant margins since last fall as well. According to Governor Branstad, Iowa has lost 40,000 jobs since October of last year. Following are the documented claims from news reports and statements from the Branstad administration:
October 2013: Gov. Branstad claimed 160,000 jobs created (1)
November 2013: Gov. Branstad claimed 128,000 jobs created (2)
January 2014: Gov. Branstad claimed 133,500 jobs created (3)
June 2014: Gov. Branstad claimed 120,000 jobs created (4)
Is it possible that Iowa lost 40,000 jobs in the past 8 months? After analyzing total employment and total nonfarm employment data provided by Iowa Workforce Development and BLS, that scenario does not seem likely.
The more likely scenario is that Governor Branstad is using a set of false and inflated numbers in an ongoing effort to distract from economic reality — that his administration will likely never achieve his promise of 200,000 jobs created.
By a variety of measures provided by Iowa Workforce Development5 and BLS, the true economic picture in Iowa shows that job creation is half of what the Governor claims, and barely one fourth of the way toward his stated goal:
Total Employment
January 2011: 1,569,300
May 2014: 1,624,300
Difference: 55,000
Total Nonfarm Employment
January 2011: 1,476,200
May 2014: 1,548,700
Difference: 72,500
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1. Branstad still seeks 200,000 new Iowa jobs [Des Moines Register, 10/21/13]
2. Iowa Governor Adjusts Job Creation Claims [AP/Business Week, 11/22/13]
3. Fact Check: Net job gain less than half of number claimed by Branstad [Cedar Rapids Gazette, 1/14/14]
4. Branstad claims 120,000 jobs created [KCRG-TV, 6/10/14]
5. [Iowa Workforce Development, accessed 6/20/14]
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