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Pre-election poll shows Braley-Ernst in dead heat; Governor’s race tightens



This news story was published on November 3, 2014.
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VOTE-HEREDES MOINES – U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley closes the gap with Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst, leaving the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47 – 47 percent dead heat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Four percent remain undecided.

This compares to results of an October 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac University, showing Sen. Ernst at 49 percent and Rep. Braley at 45 percent.

Today’s results show independent voters divided 44 – 44 percent. Republicans back Ernst 95 – 2 percent. Democrats back Braley 94 – 5 percent.

Men and women still are locked in a reverse gender gap as women back the Democratic man 51 – 42 percent, while men back the Republican woman 52 – 44 percent.

Braley leads 56 – 36 percent among those who already have voted.

One day before Election Day, 95 percent of Iowa likely voters who name a Senate candidate say their mind is made up, while 5 percent say they might change their mind.

“Iowa’s U.S. Senate race is a dead heat. The candidate who best gets his or her folks to the polls is going to win,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

Iowa likely voters remain divided on their feelings about the candidates:

* Ernst gets a 47 – 45 percent favorability;

* Braley gets a 43 – 45 percent likability score.

Governor’s Race

State Sen. Jack Hatch, the Democratic challenger in the governor’s race, inches up on long-time Republican Gov. Terry Branstad and now trails 52 – 41 percent among likely voters. This compares to Gov. Branstad’s 56 – 37 percent likely voter lead in an October 29 Quinnipiac University poll.

Men, women, Republicans and independent voters all back the long-time governor, while Democrats back Hatch 82 – 12 percent. Hatch leads 52 – 37 percent among those who already have voted.

Only 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind by tomorrow, while 95 percent say their mind is made up,

Branstad gets a 57 – 35 percent favorability rating, compared to Hatch’s 36 – 27 percent score, with 34 percent who still don’t know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 28 – November 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 778 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

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8 Responses to Pre-election poll shows Braley-Ernst in dead heat; Governor’s race tightens

  1. LVS Reply Report comment

    November 3, 2014 at 2:39 pm

    This is very strange. The Des Moines Register Poll had Ernst ahead by 7 points and Branstad so far ahead you couldn’t even count them. That was on TV this morning.

    • john Reply Report comment

      November 3, 2014 at 3:45 pm

      LVS, I found it strange as well. The Des Moines Register poll had Joni up 7 points in their article. (Believe me, I am sure it was painful for them to have to run that story being how liberal they are but they had to to maintain their credibility as a polling source.)Two days before the election they announce this, they had to, I think it will be more than 7 points. The liberal press across the country have been doing this for years, hiding the true results until the days before the election.

      • LeftMC Reply Report comment

        November 4, 2014 at 1:36 pm

        Meanwhile the “fair and balanced” reporting of Fox News never lies, or manufactures anything to rally their base…

        It’s hilarious how you Republitards keep talking about the “liberal media” yet gulp down the Fox News kool aid without question. Think for yourselves.

        • maybe Reply Report comment

          November 4, 2014 at 1:55 pm

          Did you just say think for yourselves? Liberals never think for themselves, they only repeat or think about what they are told to and you have the nerve to tell a republican to think for himself.

          • LeftMC

            November 4, 2014 at 2:24 pm

            You only repeat Fox News talking points. You’re no different than you what claim I am. You just watch a different TV channel.

          • LVS

            November 4, 2014 at 3:07 pm

            @Left-Come on Philamena. You can post under your own name. everyone already knows you are a fool. A little more won’t hurt.

          • LeftMC

            November 4, 2014 at 3:10 pm

            It’s hilarious that think I’m A) a woman and B) some sort of second username for Philosphus.

            You’re old, nutty, and completely irrelevant to this world. Hurry up and get buried.

          • maybe

            November 4, 2014 at 3:24 pm

            How can I repeat Fox News when I don’t even watch it?