DES MOINES — Democrat Rob Sand holds a five-point advantage in Iowa’s race for governor, while Republican Ashley Hinson maintains a narrow lead in the contest for an open U.S. Senate seat, according to a newly released statewide poll.
The Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media survey released Thursday, August 6, 2026, found that 48 percent of likely Iowa voters support Sand in the governor’s race, compared with 43 percent supporting Republican businessman Zach Lahn.
Seven percent remained undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Hinson received support from 48 percent of those surveyed, while Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek stood at 45 percent. Six percent were undecided.
The poll’s credibility interval, comparable to a traditional margin of error, was plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. That places Hinson’s three-point Senate advantage within the survey’s margin and Sand’s five-point lead only slightly beyond it.
The survey questioned 712 likely Iowa voters from August 2 through August 4.
Independent voters appear to be giving Democrats an opportunity in both statewide contests.
Emerson reported that independents favor Sand over Lahn by a 58-32 margin. Turek led Hinson among independent voters, 49-38.
Approximately one in 10 voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2024 indicated they now support Sand for governor.
Sand, Iowa’s two-term state auditor, had the strongest personal rating among the four statewide candidates. Fifty-one percent viewed him favorably and 31 percent viewed him unfavorably.
NIT previously reported on the increasingly bitter political dispute between Sand and Gov. Kim Reynolds over Iowa taxes and state spending as Sand positioned himself for a gubernatorial campaign.
Hinson was viewed favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent.
Turek received a 42 percent favorable rating and a 27 percent unfavorable rating, while Lahn was viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent.
The lower recognition numbers for Lahn suggest he may still have room to introduce himself to voters after emerging from a crowded Republican primary.
NIT covered Lahn and other Republican gubernatorial contenders as they campaigned at a major GOP gathering in Clear Lake before the June primary.
The Senate election is being held to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
NIT reported last year that Ernst would not seek a third term, creating Iowa’s first open U.S. Senate contest in years and giving Democrats a potential opportunity to compete for the seat.
Hinson, a former television news anchor, has represented Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District since 2021 and entered the Senate race with the backing of Trump and leading national Republicans.
Turek, a state representative and Paralympic gold medalist, won the Democratic nomination after campaigning as a working-class “prairie populist.”
The poll also found both Trump and Reynolds with approval ratings below 50 percent among Iowa voters.
Trump’s job performance was approved by 43 percent and disapproved by 51 percent.
Reynolds received a 44 percent approval rating, while 47 percent disapproved of her performance as governor.
The economy was identified as the most important issue by 38 percent of respondents. Healthcare followed at 19 percent, threats to democracy at 11 percent and education at 10 percent.
Immigration and housing affordability were each selected by 6 percent.
Iowans were almost evenly divided over the state’s taxpayer-funded private school tuition assistance program. Forty-two percent supported the program, 41 percent opposed it and 17 percent were neutral or unfamiliar with it.
The issue produced a sharp partisan divide. Sixty-four percent of Republicans supported the program, while 70 percent of Democrats opposed it. Independent voters opposed it by a 42-35 margin, with nearly one-quarter undecided or unfamiliar with the policy.
The poll also found that 53 percent want Iowa to retain its presidential caucus system. Twenty-five percent favored replacing the caucuses with a primary election, while 23 percent were unsure.
Although the new numbers offer an early snapshot of the November electorate, the races remain unsettled. Undecided voters, campaign advertising, debates and voter turnout could substantially change both contests before Election Day.
Lahn needs to run for governor in his home state.
Yes he doesn’t even belong in the iowa race.