By Kim Geiger, Tribune Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON — While Mitt Romney and Ron Paul lead the pack among GOP candidates favored by likely Iowa caucus-goers, Rick Santorum’s surge continues, according to a new NBC/Marist poll released Friday.
The poll, which was conducted Dec. 27-28, also shows “tea party” supporters becoming more divided as the Jan. 3 caucus nears.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leads with 23 percent support from likely caucus-goers, followed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, with 21 percent.
Next is former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who has surged to 15 percent, up considerably from just 5 percent in late November, the last time the poll was taken. Texas Gov. Rick Perry has also seen a bump in support, though not as drastic as Santorum’s. Perry went from 9 percent in late-November to 14 percent in this latest poll.
The poll is bad news for former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who was atop the GOP field with 26 percent support last month. He placed fifth in this latest poll, with 13 percent support. Worse, 35 percent now say he would be unacceptable as the GOP nominee, compared with 16 percent last month. And 6 percent identify him as the “true conservative” in the race.
About half of likely Iowa caucus-goers identify as tea party supporters, and Gingrich’s lead among these voters has also dissolved. Tea party support now appears to be splintered between a number of candidates, with Santorum favored by 20 percent, followed by Romney and Paul with 17 percent, Gingrich with 16 percent, Perry with 15 percent and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann with 10 percent.
The results of the NBC/Marist poll mirror the findings of a CNN-Time poll that was released earlier this week. Their methodologies were slightly different: Unlike the CNN-Time poll, NBC/Marist contacted some respondents by cell phone and the likely voter model included independents and some Democrats.
The CNN-Time poll found, among likely voters in Iowa, 25 percent support for Romney, 22 percent for Paul, 16 percent for Santorum, 14 percent for Gingrich, 11 percent for Perry, 9 percent for Bachmann and 1 percent for former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who is not campaigning in Iowa.
