Just think of it: The heat in the US presidential race has just propelled people to election betting as an exciting way out to get them engaged in the political process. Whether you are a seasoned or new punter who has never placed some kind of wager on politics, high stakes await with the right approach, of course, you can make informed, calculated wagers. In this kind of election betting on outcomes from the presidency to congressional races, you stand to make a profit by predicting the winners correctly. The following article delves deep into the space of US election betting, with key tips on how to bet on the presidential election and where to bet, lending insight into both political odds and betting strategies.
How to Bet on the Presidential Election
Like other types of sports or event betting, betting on the US presidential election is similar in structure. To sit and be able to place bets on the political markets, you first need to sign up for a sportsbook or betting platforms that offer them. Once you have an account, pick out the election odds you want and make your wager. There are more complex betting markets: who will win the presidency? How about the specific swing states? Who will control Congress after the election?
If you want to successfully bet on the presidential election it’s important to be aware of political happenings and understand how the election odds move after major events. A good or bad debate performance or even a scandal, can change public opinion and in turn, can change how sportsbooks perceive the odds the candidate will win.
Where to Bet on the Presidential Run
It’s not that all sportsbooks offer political betting, but most major ones do; at least for the more notable elections, such as that of the Presidency of the United States. These websites, apart from offering presidential election odds, offer numerous other forms of political betting markets. You can, for instance, wager on which party will be in control of the Senate or what party will take any particular congressional race and even predict how particular states might vote.
Remember that political betting is not uniformly legal throughout the US. Many states prohibit all forms of betting related to election outcomes; it’s a good idea, therefore, to check local legislation before deciding to place a bet. International sportsbooks may also have various restrictions on offers for US-based bettors and that should be checked as well.
Understanding Odds
The odds of election work the same as the odds on sports betting. The odds are the probability someone might win the presidency. The odds of all of these are affected by polling data, media coverage, public sentiment and things that happen politically.
There are three main types of odds: decimal, moneyline and finally and fractional. In the US, you will most commonly find moneyline odds on elections. For instance, if a candidate’s odds are -200 then you’d have to bet $200 to win $100 if the candidate wins. +150 means if you were to bet $100, you’d win $150. Now that you understand these odds, you’ll have an idea of what your bets will pay.
Election odds can vary during the campaign — for example, in the lead-up to a debate or the onset of a scandal or policy announcement. Watch these odds closely, because the timing of your bet makes a huge difference in what you might cash out.
Following Polling Data
While polling data tends to be a very important determinant of election odds, it is by no means perfect. Polls are snapshots of public opinion taken at any one time and can sometimes give some indication of the direction of an election, but they can also mislead. For example, polls taken without accounting for corresponding voter turnout or stemming from smaller sample sizes, may not be quite so valid.
So, if you’re using polls to help inform an election betting strategy, it’s all about looking at that bigger picture. Sites with authoritative aggregators, such as FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics, will be able to aggregate data from several polls. This does not mean you need or will want to base a wager exclusively on polls. Instead, use these in concert with other variables that you should be paying attention to historical trends, economic conditions and news coverage.
Pay Attention to Swing States
The outcome of a presidential election is decided in large part by swing states, those which could realistically go for either major party. Precincts in states as varied as Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona are often hotly contested by the parties, as these regions’ electoral votes are so important to both. If you bet on which candidate will win a swing state, you might be on to something — swing states often determine who wins the run.
If you are to be successful at betting on swing states, you should keep abreast of the local issues, voter demographics and any last-minute events that may change public opinion. It all comes down to the handful of states whose outcome could change in the dark alleys of urban battlegrounds, the shabby shopping centres of suburban swing districts or even where getting past voter registration is the point of the exercise.
Evaluating Historical Trends
History can repeat, and, thus, historical trends are important when considering your election betting strategy. For instance, history shows that incumbents running for re-election usually start at an advantage, as well as candidates from a party that has been in power during the growth or stability of a nation’s economy. Traditionally, some states have supported one party over another.
But while historical trends are crucial, they are not everything. Shifting political sentiment, traumatic events and changes in demographic composition shred these patterns of trends. The most well-rounded approach to betting on an election considers both historical context and current events.
Stay Up to Date with Political News
Understanding the latest political news is important to betting. Debates, scandals, endorsements and policy announcements can all dramatically change a candidate’s fortunes overnight. Watching debates, following reputable news sources and keeping an eye on campaign updates will all lead you to spot trends that could change the election odds.
In addition, political news can sometimes give us a glimpse of what are some of the issues important to the voters, how candidates are handling the strategy of the campaign and what is the general election vibe. However, to place well-informed bets, it is vital to understand how these factors could affect the outcome. Also, if someone is polling pretty strong but making bad news, then the odds could change on you based on the public perception.