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Latest poll shows Trump with huge lead nationally

This news story was published on December 14, 2015.
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Donald Trump

Donald Trump

WEST LONG BRANCH, NJ – Recent polls have shown Donald Trump slipping and a surge by his burgeoning rival Ted Cruz, but a poll released today by Monmouth University shows the billionaire real estate mogul with a huge lead nationally.

The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Donald Trump building a commanding national lead in the race for the Republican nomination. Ted Cruz is slightly ahead of Ben Carson and Marco Rubio in the second tier, while all other candidates poll well below 5 percent. The poll also finds, however, that Republican voters other than Trump or Cruz supporters feel the frontrunner does not have the right temperament to be president.

Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

When Republicans and Republican-leaning voters are asked who they would support for the GOP nomination for president, Donald Trump leads the pack at 41%. Ted Cruz (14%), Marco Rubio (10%), and Ben Carson (9%) are far behind. All of the other ten candidates tested poll in the low single digits, including Jeb Bush (3%), John Kasich (3%), Chris Christie (2%), Carly Fiorina (2%), Mike Huckabee (2%), and Rand Paul (2%). All but Huckabee have been invited to the main stage for tomorrow’s debate.

The results represent a big jump in Trump’s support and a rearrangement of the deck chairs in the second tier. After polling between 26% and 30% in Monmouth polls throughout the late summer and fall, Trump’s showing has increased by 13 points from his 28% result in mid-October. Cruz and Rubio have each gained 4 points over the same period, while Carson’s support has dropped by 9 points.

“It has become abundantly clear that Trump is giving his supporters exactly what they want, even if what he says causes the GOP leadership and many Republican voters to cringe” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

While nearly 2-in-3 (65%) voters overall agree that Trump has the temperament to take on the role of president, there are significant differences in this view among the GOP electorate. More than 9-in- 10 (94%) Trump supporters say he has the right temperament. Cruz voters are more likely to have a positive (52%) rather than negative (43%) opinion of Trump’s demeanor. Among all other Republican voters, though, 55% say Trump’s temperament is not a good fit for the presidency compared to 43% who feel it is.

Overall, 30% of Republicans would be enthusiastic if Trump won the nomination and another 37% would be satisfied. Just 12% would be dissatisfied and another 16% would actually be upset. Putting Trump’s supporter’s aside, most Cruz voters (63%) would be okay with Trump as the party’s standard-bearer. Among all other Republican voters, however, just 40% feel the same while most say they would be either dissatisfied (24%) or upset (29%) if Trump was the GOP nominee.

Trump’s support comes from a wide variety of GOP voter groups, although it is skewed toward those who have never been to college. Trump commands the support of a majority (54%) of Republican voters with a high school education – 13 points higher than his overall support levels. He also does somewhat better among men (44%) than women (37%), but draws very similar levels of support from very conservative (41%), somewhat conservative (45%), and moderate (40%) voters.

Trump does better among strong tea party supporters (52%), but this is a group where Cruz also outperforms his overall standing by garnering 29% support, which is 15 points higher than his support among all GOP voters. Cruz also performs well among very conservative voters (26%).

“Trump voters may skew toward a lower educational level, but it’s important to keep in mind that he draws support from significant segments of every voting bloc. You simply can’t pigeonhole his supporters as representing one or two particular factions of the party,” said Murray.

The top issue for Republican voters nationwide is national security and terrorism (39% first choice / 18% second choice), followed by the economy and jobs (19% first choice / 22% second choice). The next tier of issue concerns includes taxes and government spending (12% first choice / 13% second choice) and immigration (9% first choice / 16% second choice). Social issues (4% / 7%), gun control (3% / 6%), and education (3% / 5%) rank much farther down the list.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from December 10 to 13, 2015 with 1006 adults in the United States. This release is based on a sample of 385 registered voters who identify themselves as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party. This voter sample has a margin of error of +5.0 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

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10 Responses to Latest poll shows Trump with huge lead nationally

  1. Avatar

    Allen Reply Report comment

    December 15, 2015 at 6:25 pm

    Since Ted Nugent and Jesse Ventura aren’t running, vote Trump. 🙂

  2. Avatar

    LVS Reply Report comment

    December 15, 2015 at 3:08 pm

    Good for the Donald. He is so far ahead they can’t even see his butt. It will be very easy for him to beat Hitlary the Hag if she isn’t in prison where she belongs. Only ignorant sheeple would vote for a Democrat after the last eight years.

    • Avatar

      Nada Racist Reply Report comment

      December 16, 2015 at 7:34 am


      • Avatar

        LVS Reply Report comment

        December 16, 2015 at 8:06 am

        Bern is just biding his time waiting for E.T. to pick him up.

  3. Avatar

    Page 32 Reply Report comment

    December 15, 2015 at 1:20 pm

  4. Avatar

    Nada Racist Reply Report comment

    December 15, 2015 at 8:17 am

    This Just In: Trump leads among old, white, frightened, racist voters.

    • Avatar

      Snarly Fibberina Reply Report comment

      December 15, 2015 at 4:10 pm

      Many of whom reside right here. Guns, God and Prune Juice.

      • Avatar

        WTF Reply Report comment

        December 15, 2015 at 4:20 pm

        And Extra Strength Viagra.

      • Avatar

        WTF Reply Report comment

        December 15, 2015 at 5:26 pm

        I hope he is in bed and diapered at this time of the day.

      • Avatar

        Anon Reply Report comment

        December 15, 2015 at 5:43 pm

        What the…..?
        I clicked on this story and there was another comment here about LVS.
        Read something else, came back and that comment was gone and in its place another one from LVS.
        Read something else again, came back again and now LVS’s comment is gone.

        What the &^*( is going on here?