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Cruz nearly tied with trump in Iowa, according to new poll

This news story was published on November 24, 2015.
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Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz

HAMDEN, CONNECTICUT – A Quinnipiac University Poll finds that Ted Cruz is in a statistical dead heat with Donald Trump in Iowa, while Republicans by a wide margin want to keep Syrian refugees out.

Donald Trump gets 25 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in a too-close-to- call race with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas who is at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.

This compares to the results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Carson at 28 percent, with 20 percent for Trump, Rubio at 13 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.

One thing that hasn’t changed is the poor showing for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who goes from 5 percent October 22 to 4 percent today.

Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, with Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 26 percent say they “would definitely not support” Bush, with 23 percent saying “no way” to Trump.

“Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson’s turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

“The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins.”

“Worth remembering, however, is that winning Iowa is no guarantee of success elsewhere. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 caucus and former Sen. Rick Santorum took the 2012 crown, yet both were quickly gone from those nomination fights as the primary calendar moved to larger states,” Brown added.

Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants give Carson the best favorability rating, 79 – 15 percent, with 73 – 15 percent for Cruz, 70 – 18 percent for Rubio and 59 – 34 percent for Trump. Bush has a negative 39 – 53 percent favorability rating.

The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, 24 percent of GOP caucus-goers say, with 15 percent each for terrorism and foreign policy, 11 percent for the federal deficit and 10 percent for immigration.

Trump can best handle the economy, 49 percent of Republicans say, with 11 percent picking Cruz. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are the choice of 6 percent each.

Trump is tops handling terrorism, 30 percent of Republican Caucus-goers say, with 20 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Rubio and 7 percent for Bush. Carson, Paul and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie are at 5 percent each.

Cruz is best on foreign policy, 24 percent of Republicans say, with 18 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for Bush. Carson and Paul are at 6 percent each.

Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants oppose 81 – 15 percent allowing Syrian refugees into the U.S. and oppose 82 – 13 percent allowing them into Iowa.

Republicans support 73 – 22 percent sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and say 83 – 9 percent that the U.S. and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS.

A total of 88 percent of Republicans are “very worried” or “somewhat worried” about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. similar to the attack in Paris.

“One thing almost all Iowa Republicans agree upon is that Syrian refugees should not be allowed into the United States or into Iowa,” Brown said.

From November 16 – 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

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15 Responses to Cruz nearly tied with trump in Iowa, according to new poll

  1. Avatar

    Nada Racist Reply Report comment

    November 27, 2015 at 12:42 pm


  2. Avatar

    Anonymous Reply Report comment

    November 26, 2015 at 1:03 pm

    John! What it means is that you don’t have to go to DC to find corruption – local yokals are just as crooked!

  3. Avatar

    Anonymous Reply Report comment

    November 26, 2015 at 8:31 am

    MR. RUMP would be considered a pimple on Donald’s azz.

  4. Avatar

    LVS Reply Report comment

    November 26, 2015 at 7:47 am

    Cruz is to far to he right for me. I think it would be a constant war with the left if he was elected.

    • Avatar

      Anonymous Reply Report comment

      November 26, 2015 at 9:21 am

      He’s far too right of even mainstream Republicans. If he does not get his way he always plays the government shutdown card.

      • Avatar

        LVS Reply Report comment

        November 26, 2015 at 9:30 am

        That is exactly what I meant. They all have forgotten what negotiation is all about. The Democrats have the same in Harry Reid. All they do is threaten to get their way. Stopping a vote of congress should never be allowed just because you might lose and not get your way. Our system is set up for majority votes win.

      • Matt Marquardt

        Matt Marquardt Reply Report comment

        November 26, 2015 at 10:51 am

        I agree. TC is just too radical, too Biblical, too Old Testament. Borderline creepy. Dem’s are no better, and most of the GOP is about he same. There’s no one good to pick from this presidential election.

        • Avatar

          LVS Reply Report comment

          November 26, 2015 at 11:28 am

          @Matt-I agree. The reason I like Trump is he is not a career politician and would only be in for one term. I kind of liked Webb but they made sure he never had a chance. I would never consider voting for Hillary or Bush. They are old time establishment and crooked as hell. Sanders whole campaign is built on giving everything to the people who do not work and he is just waiting for E.T. to take him away.

        • Avatar

          LVS Reply Report comment

          November 26, 2015 at 11:31 am

          I kind of like Rubio but suspect he is being perverted by the superpacs. They should outlaw the superpaks as all they do is support the people who will make them more money at our expense. It will never end until we do away with the crooks with money.

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          Rand McNally Reply Report comment

          November 26, 2015 at 11:54 am

          Take a closer look at Rand Paul. He’s singing a not too shabby song. True that this election cycle doesnt have a standout star. I’ll accept minor strides like Rand’s plan to end the drug war and keep is out of prolonged middle eastern conflict.

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            November 26, 2015 at 12:39 pm

            Paul is to weak on foreign affairs. It is one world now and we need a strong president who can lead. Paul sounds like a whiney bitch most the time.

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            YACHT CLUB

            November 26, 2015 at 5:59 pm

            Rubio is riding his cherubic boyish good looks. He’s one of those Y.A.C.H.T club members. (Young-Affluent-Christian-Hottie-Tribe). He doesn’t really possess any true convictions and he’s far too young and immature to really lead or handle a crisis.

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            November 26, 2015 at 6:19 pm

            Just like Obama was. Go Trump

  5. Avatar

    Anonymous Reply Report comment

    November 25, 2015 at 10:01 am

    Politicans in Iowa are mostly Government subsidized and vote for anything that fattens their wallets such as worthless county suppervisor passed a 11% property tax break for himself and his buddies in the court house -adding the burden to small business owners in worthless county with a 11% increase in property values – takes a lot of balls to do this – but who said 95% of these people give the other honest 5% a bad name. Thanks Bartz and please choke on your thanksgiving meal you turkey.

    • Avatar

      John Reply Report comment

      November 25, 2015 at 7:32 pm

      Um, what does that have to do with this story?