Signs point to an Obama victory, but Romney isn’t out of it

By Paul West, Tribune Washington Bureau –

WASHINGTON — After a final cross-country campaign whirl by both candidates, President Barack Obama heads into Election Day riding a slim lead in enough key states to secure a second term, while Mitt Romney remains competitive and could yet unseat him.

National polling showed late voter movement toward Obama, raising the possibility that the election might not drag out for days and weeks of wrangling over disputed ballots, as some feared. The president continued to maintain a slight edge in the vast majority of swing-state opinion polls, though his advantage typically remained within the surveys’ margins of error.

An Obama re-election win would mean continued divided government in Washington. If Romney prevails, 2012 would become the fourth national change election in a row, including the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006, Obama’s 2008 victory and the Republican return to power in the House in 2010.

“I actually think the question of this election comes down to this: Do you want four more years like the last four years. Or do you want real change?” Romney said Monday to chants of “Mitt! Mitt! Mitt!” at a rally in the Northern Virginia suburbs outside Washington. The Republican asserted, as he has throughout a six-year quest for the presidency, that his record as a successful businessman, Winter Olympics chief and one-term governor of Massachusetts qualified him for the nation’s highest office.

Obama answered back, telling supporters on what he said would be his last day as a candidate, “I know what real change looks like” and “we’ve got more change to make.”

Tuesday’s vote, the president said in Madison, Wis., on Monday, comes down to “a choice between returning to the top-down policies that crashed our economy, or a future that’s built on providing opportunity to everybody and growing a strong middle class.”

More than 30 million Americans already have voted and by the time all polling places close, more than 130 million are expected to have cast ballots across the country. Most will be in places, including California, Illinois, Texas and New York, where the presidential election is not in doubt, because most states reliably favor the nominee of one major party or the other.

Insiders in both campaigns say they will be closely watching three states—Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia—for clues to the outcome of the election.

On Monday, as the sun set on their prolonged and bitter campaign battle, Obama and Romney converged on Columbus, Ohio, the key swing area of the nation’s most celebrated battleground state, which has gotten more candidate attention than any other.

Obama also campaigned in Wisconsin and Iowa, while Romney appeared in Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire.

Romney has sought to add Pennsylvania to that mix, scheduling an Election Day stop in Pittsburgh, along with another in Cleveland. Obama planned to spend Tuesday in his hometown of Chicago, where he cast an early ballot last month.

Carrying Ohio—which he won four years ago—would open up a clear path to 270 electoral votes for the president. To win re-election, Obama would need to add only Wisconsin, assuming his advantage holds in Nevada and other states regarded as likely to go Democratic. But Wisconsin, the home state of Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, is not a given. Recent polling shows Obama ahead by three or more points, though a recent campaign poll had his lead down to a single percentage point. Another had him ahead by five.

If Obama loses Ohio, he’ll need to make up the difference by carrying Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire; late polling showed him with at least a marginal lead in all three. A Virginia win would give him breathing room and could be an early sign that he is headed for victory.

Romney’s electoral math is more complicated, but almost certainly requires winning Ohio. A loss there would force him to pick up other states, including Wisconsin, Colorado and New Hampshire. He’d also have to carry Virginia and Florida.