By Mac Engel, McClatchy Newspapers –
Thanks to Lehigh and Norfolk State, the 2012 NCAA men’s basketball tournament has its signature upsets that are required for this to be called “March Madness.” What this tournament lacks is a serious George Mason, Butler or Virginia Commonwealth — the mid-major that looks as if it can reach the Final Four. No. 13 Ohio is carrying that banner. As for the rest of the opening weekend, all of the top seeds made it through and Kentucky did nothing to dispel the notion that it is not the heaviest of heavy favorites to win the title. A look at the Sweet 16:
WEST REGIONAL
Playing the best
No. 4 Louisville. The Cardinals are one of the worst shooting teams in the country (42.3 percent), but they are on a six-game winning streak that includes the Big East tournament title. This team is all about point guard Peyton Siva, who has averaged about six assists per game in the streak.
The surprise
No. 7 Florida. The Gators were supposed to lose to No. 2 Missouri, but then Norfolk State happened to Mizzou. This is not Florida coach Billy Donovan’s best team, but given the nature of this bracket, the Gators could win this. Six of Florida’s eight Sweet 16 appearances are under Donovan.
Can it last?
No. 11 North Carolina State is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005. Coach Mark Gottfried is the first N.C. State coach to win 24 games in a season since Jim Valvano.
Remember this
Michigan State is here without the presence of freshman forward Branden Dawson, who is out with a torn ACL suffered in the Big Ten tournament. At some point the Spartans are going to miss his 8.4 points and 4.5 rebounds.
The games
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 7 Florida: Florida has tremendous balance, but it is not a good rebounding team, and this is a bad matchup. The Marquette pair of Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, who average 35 points per game, will be the difference.
Pick: Marquette
No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 4 Louisville: Expect a grinding game with the score in the 60s. Both teams defend very well and rebound aggressively, but the Spartans have a better transition game and have Draymond Green.
Pick: Michigan State
Regional winner: Marquette
SOUTH REGIONAL
Playing the best
No. 1 Kentucky. The Wildcats were not threatened in either of their first two games of this tournament. They held their first two opponents to 9-of-37 on 3-pointers, and outrebounded each opponent by nine. The best hope for this team to lose is that it goes dumb and beats itself.
The surprise
No. 10 Xavier. Xavier is a fake 10 seed. This team is much, much better than its seeding. At the time of their giant brawl against Cincinnati on Dec. 10 the Musketeers were 8-0. After that, they were 13-12. Whatever was wrong is now right. Behind guard Tu Holloway, the Musketeers are good enough to reach this region’s Elite Eight.
Can it last?
Baylor guard Brady Heslip is mocking the college 3-point line. He is 14-of-22 from 3-point range in this tournament, including 9-of-12 in the win against Colorado. He moves extremely well without the ball to find open looks.
Remember this
Indiana, which is in the Sweet 16 for the first time in a decade, is playing without guard Verdell Jones III, who suffered a season-ending torn ACL in the Big Ten tournament. Jones set up the game-winning 3-pointer against Kentucky back in December.
The games
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Indiana: The Hoosiers are one of two teams to defeat Kentucky this season. IU defeated UK 73-72 on Dec. 10 in Indiana on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer by Christian Watford that officially signaled the rebirth of IU basketball. Doesn’t matter. The earliest UK loses is in New Orleans.
Pick: Kentucky
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 10 Xavier: The Bears received a wonderful draw to reach the Sweet 16, but this matchup will be more difficult than the previous two combined. Xavier is a nasty team that will not mind getting rough.
Pick: Xavier
Regional winner: Kentucky
MIDWEST REGIONAL
Playing the best
No. 11 North Carolina State. The Wolfpack might have had a very favorable first-round draw against an overrated San Diego State team, but this team is guarding as well any team not named Kentucky. N.C. State opponents are shooting 34 percent this season.
The surprise
No. 13 Ohio. The Bobcats are the surprise of this NCAA, and the lowest seed remaining. Guard D.J. Cooper is proving a lot of big-time schools wrong, and Nick Kellogg is making his famous father, Clark, a proud man.
Can it last?
North Carolina is, talent-wise, the best team in this region and had enough to challenge Kentucky. Had. A broken wrist suffered by guard Kendall Marshall in the round of 32 against Creighton changes this team dramatically. Even if he can be fitted for a splint or cast, he won’t be as effective and the Tar Heels are without a major contributor.
Remember this
When N.C. State hired former Alabama coach Mark Gottfried last year the school was skewered for the unimaginative selection. Gottfried has N.C. State in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005 and is bringing back memories of the Wolfpack’s run in 1983.
The games
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 13 Ohio: You can’t expect Ohio’s mojo to keep up against North Carolina. The Tar Heels have so much quality size, Ohio is going to have to control and slow the tempo against a team that can run, and finish.
Pick: North Carolina
No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 2 Kansas: The Jayhawks are a better team, but as evidenced in their narrow win against Purdue, they can be harassed into a lot of of mistakes. This is a rough draw for N.C. State. As long as it keeps the score low and forward C.J. Leslie is scoring, the Pack has a shot. Kansas should win.
Pick: Kansas.
Regional winner: North Carolina
EAST REGIONAL
Playing the best
No. 2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes are guarding as well as they have all season and are one of the most balanced teams in the field. Between Jared Sullinger, William Buford, Aaron Craft and Deshuan Thomas, they have at least four guys who could go for 20 on a given night.
The surprise
No. 6 Cincinnati. The Bearcats surprised the nation’s top dark horse Final Four favorite, Florida State, to reach the Sweet 16. If not for the Bearcats, the NCAA selection committee would have nailed this region.
Can it last?
No. 1 Syracuse without Fab Melo. As strong, quick, big and talented as Syracuse is, you would think the loss of 7-foot center Fab Melo will catch up at some point. The Orange sans Fab should not be exploited against Wisconsin, but against a much bigger and more athletic Florida State or Ohio State, this is going to be a problem.
Remember this
Wisconsin has been here before, and with guard Jordan Taylor. A 4 seed last season, the Badgers reached the Sweet 16, but were pushed around by Butler, which went on to another title game. No team can grind and bore you the way Wisconsin can, but this is a bad matchup for the Badgers.
The games
No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 4 Wisconsin: The Orange’s matchup zone either will crunch a Wisconsin team that shoots only 36 percent from 3-point range, or the Badgers could just have one of those nights. If Syracuse is able to get out and run, at all, it will win.
Pick: Syracuse
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 6 Cincinnati: The Buckeyes were right on the edge of earning a No. 1 seed and the way they have played so far in the tournament, they deserved it. Guard Aaron Craft is very likely too much to handle for any team in this region.
Pick: Ohio State
Regional winner: Ohio State
