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Big Ten and Big 12 tourney histories favor Iowa and Iowa State on Thursday

Mike Hlas, CR Gazette –

This week brings us the 15th Big Ten men’s basketball tournament.

Iowa is the No. 8 seed. It plays No. 9 Illinois in Thursday’s session-opening game. Will the Hawkeyes have their sixth-straight first-round flameout, or will they advance in the event?

History tells us the Hawkeyes are likely to defeat the Illini. The No. 8 seed is 11-3 vs. the No. 9 seed. The last time a No. 9 beat a No. 8 was in 2008 when Michigan downed Iowa.

Should Iowa proceed to Friday’s quarterfinals against top-seeded Michigan State, history (as you would expect) won’t be on Iowa’s side. But there have been more upsets in that matchup than you might guess. The No. 8/No. 9 winner has beaten the No. 1 seed four times in 14 tries. The most-recent was in 2003.

The only No. 8-seed to reach the tournament final was Ohio State in 2003. The only No. 9-seed to do so was Iowa in 2002, when it won four games in four days in Chicago to capture the first of its two league tourney titles.

A No. 6-seed has reached the finals in each of the previous two years. No. 10 Illinois got to the final in 2008. There have been four 1-vs.-2 finals. That’s not a lot.

Iowa State will be the No. 3 seed at this week’s Big 12 tourney in Kansas City, Mo.

The Cyclones, who open Thursday against No. 6 Texas, can take heart in this stat: No. 3 seeds have won five of the 15 Big 12 tournaments, and finished second three times. That’s a better record than No. 2 seeds, which have three firsts and three seconds.

The last two years have seen victories by top-seeded Kansas over No. 2 seeds Kansas State and Baylor.

The No. 3 seeds are 12-3 in quarterfinals.

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