Poll shows Hillary and Trump still with sizable leads

DUBUQUE, Iowa— Hillary Clinton continues to hold a sizeable advantage over her nearest rivals according to the new Loras College Poll released Wednesday. The news is not all positive for Clinton, however, as her level of support has decreased since the last Loras Poll in April.  Perhaps more importantly, the latest poll shows the support for her nearest rival, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, has risen dramatically.

“Clinton continues to hold the advantages in public support, organization in the field and support within the Democratic Party establishment,” commented Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D. “But, this summer has been very good for Senator Sanders. He has drawn large and enthusiastic crowds in the state and across the country. We have seen substantial positive movement for Sanders in our polling.  With the emergence of such a challenge, as well as the continued possibility of a late entry by Vice President Biden, this fall will be more interesting than many would have originally thought,” Budzisz concluded.

Candidate Preference
Results among likely Democratic caucus attendees are as follows:

REPUBLICANS

With five months to go before the 2016 Iowa Caucuses, a pair of unconventional candidates top the large Republican field. For the 502 likely Republican caucus-goers polled statewide, billionaire real estate mogul Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson are leading the field by a relatively wide margin. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is in a distant third place, and is the only other candidate with double-digit support as a first choice candidate.

“I have heard Donald Trump himself say that it is the ‘summer of Trump,’ and our latest poll seems to confirm that here in Iowa,” said Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D. “Beyond Trump’s meteoric rise, the climb of another unconventional candidate, neurosurgeon Ben Carson, is every bit as noteworthy,” Budzisz further remarked.

“Iowa has historically been receptive to those outside the typical mold of ‘politician,’ and we may be seeing a repeat of that this year. But, time is not always kind to the summer frontrunners,” Budzisz noted.

Beyond the race for the presidential nomination, the new Loras College Poll also asked voters their opinion on the direction of the country, state of the economy, presidential job approval, as well as perceptions of the impact of elections on public policy.

“We will find out more about the staying power of Trump and Carson as the election draws nearer and the other campaigns direct energy and resources against them. Super PACs will also play a huge role in all of this, as the groups supporting other Republicans in the race saturate television, radio and internet. No doubt many of these messages will be negative. There are several more debates to come, and they could also serve as opportunities to clarify or shake up the race for voters,” said Budzisz. “Bottom line is that we are in for plenty of twists and turns until the caucuses in February.”

Candidate Preference
Results among likely Republican caucus attendees are as follows:

Differences from April Loras College Poll
Looking back to the spring Loras College Poll, fortunes have certainly changed for many of the candidates. Of the top three in that earlier poll, in terms of first choice of voters (Walker, Rubio, and Bush), only Bush has retained his level of support. Both Scott Walker and Marco Rubio have seen their support diminish, with Walker losing roughly half his support as a first choice candidate and Rubio losing even more. Donald Trump has seen the largest increase, with nearly an eight-fold increase in support.

Favorability:
The Loras Poll asked respondents whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates. Ben Carson is very highly thought of by likely Republican caucus participants, with 72.9 percent of respondents having a favorable opinion of him—the highest favorability rating within the Republican field. South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham has the highest unfavorable rating, at 47.2 percent. The top five favorable/unfavorable are:

Trump is viewed favorably by a majority of all likely Republican caucus participants (51.8 percent).

Likely caucus participants were also asked whether or not there was a candidate they absolutely would not vote for. Donald Trump and Jeb Bush appear more polarizing than the other Republicans in the field. Only Trump and Bush registered any noticeable level of dissatisfaction, with 23.3 percent saying they would absolutely not vote for Trump and 22.3 percent saying they would absolutely not vote for Bush.
In looking at the second choices of voters, it appears that if Joe Biden decides not to run for the nomination, Hillary Clinton will be the beneficiary of that decision. Of the voters who chose Biden as their first choice, 54.9 percent indicated Hillary Clinton was their second choice, while only 20.7 percent indicated they supported Bernie Sanders as their second choice. Overall, Joe Biden was the most popular second choice candidate, being selected by 31.1 percent of all likely voters.

Favorability 
Likely Democratic caucus-goers tend to think highly of the Democratic candidates. While some of the bottom tier candidates remain unknown by many in Iowa, Clinton and Sanders score well with voters in terms of favorability. Clinton is viewed favorably by 77.5 percent of respondents, and Sanders by 60.8 percent. Neither candidate is viewed unfavorably by many likely voters, with Clinton’s unfavorable rating at 16.5 percent and Sanders at 14.5 percent. While nearly all respondents had a formed opinion on Clinton, 21.3 percent indicated they had no opinion on Sanders.

“Clinton is universally known and people have largely developed an opinion on her, whereas Sanders has more opportunity to shape the views voters have of him. His campaign needs to capitalize on this opportunity,” Budzisz remarked.

Clinton and Sanders Supporters
The two top candidates do have different strengths within the electorate. One such point of difference is in family income levels. In the most recent Loras Poll, Clinton garnered the support of 55.0 percent of those with a family income below $50,000, whereas Sanders only received the support of 20.6 percent of these same voters. Sanders does very well with those with college or graduate degrees, however; 64.3 percent of those who select Sanders as their first choice candidate have a college or graduate degree, whereas only 47.9 percent of Hillary supporters hold such degrees. Furthermore, Clinton captures 56.0 percent of all the likely Democratic caucus-goers whose highest educational attainment is high school, while Sanders secures 13.0 percent of the same part of the electorate.

Clinton and Sanders have comparable appeal to the liberal elements within the Democratic electorate, but Clinton is stronger than Sanders with the moderate and conservative sections of the party. Clinton leads Sanders 45.1 percent to 40.2 percent among those who label themselves very liberal. This constituency does make up a greater percentage of Sanders supporters than Clinton, however: 28.7 percent of those whose first choice was Sanders label themselves as very liberal, whereas the number is 15.3 percent for Clinton.

“In all, it appears Sanders draws his support most from among those with the highest levels of formal education, of liberalism, and those with middle and upper income levels. Clinton does better with those with lower levels of education and of lower income status, as well as moderate and conservative likely Democratic caucus-goers,” Budzisz remarked.

Clinton also captures the first-choice support of 54.2 percent of females, with Sanders capturing 21.4 percent. However, within the ranks of those identifying him as their first-choice candidate, Sanders receives roughly equal support from males and females (51.3 percent and 48.7 percent respectively). Clinton supporters are more imbalanced. Among those who chose her as their first-choice candidate, 58.7 percent are female, 41.3 percent male.