Michael Hunt: Packers’ toughest test just might come in Houston

By Michael Hunt, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel –

MILWAUKEE — Of the two teams that solved the Green Bay Packers last season, only one mattered.

It was the same bunch that bushwhacked the Packers at Lambeau Field in the NFC Championship Game five seasons ago.

The same New York Giants, with the same Eli Manning at quarterback, who beat the 15-1 Packers at home last year in the conference semifinals.

All apologies for ripping the Band-Aid from a relatively fresh wound here at the start of training camp, but the Packers are about to begin preparation for another season with a sizable target on their schedule.

And, no, it isn’t Week 12, when the Packers go back to the Meadowlands for the second consecutive regular season to play the Giants. Like reality on reality TV shows, revenge is highly overrated in professional sports.

So, week 11 at Detroit? Makes sense, because it’s the division before anything else. And it is the Lions, despite all the noise coming from our neighbors to the immediate south, who likely will be the Packers’ primary challenger in the NFC North.

But if you really want a heretical point of view on the most interesting game of the season, how about one that would be universally dismissed for its significance because the opponent is in the other conference?

In Week 6, it shouldn’t matter a whole lot if the Packers leave Reliant Stadium with a loss to the Houston Texans. For the Packers, the road to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII goes through the NFC.

But if the Packers get there — which they should with defensive tweaks here, there and pretty much everywhere — to win it they just might have to go through the Texans again.

This view runs counter to the current Vegas line, which has San Francisco installed as the Super Bowl favorite. That seems silly with Alex Smith and Randy Moss, no matter how far the 49ers got last year with defense. And, of course, there is less money being played on the Texans than the Broncos on the Peyton Manning hype.

Sillier still is to even be talking this stuff before a ball boy drops off the first rookie free agent at the Greyhound station.

But two things:

The Packers are among the NFC favorites. It would not be a stretch to consider the Texans among the AFC favorites. Beyond that, they have two of the four easiest schedules this season based on 2011 records.

The combined 2011 winning percentage of Houston’s opponents is .473, 29th lowest in the NFL. The Texans play six teams with nine or more victories last season.

The ‘11 winning-percentage of the Packers’ opponents is .469, 31st lowest in the league. Green Bay will play seven so-called quality opponents.

A reason to hedge on the Texans as the AFC favorite is New England plays the easiest 2012 schedule, with a league-low four quality opponents. Bill Belichick strikes again.

And who doesn’t like preseason schedule dissection? You’ve got to admit it beats watching 7-on-7 drills in this summer weather unfit for man or defensive lineman.

Injuries aside and a reasonable expectation that some of the defensive rookies taken at the top of the draft can play, the Packers’ schedule breaks down easier than its 2011 pass rush.

Taken in quadrants, they win their first four against San Francisco, Chicago, at Seattle and New Orleans while struggling at home against the 49ers and Saints.

Then they go 3-1 at Indianapolis, at Houston, at St. Louis and against Jacksonville with a loss to the Texans.

Then 2-2 against Arizona, at Detroit, at New York and against Minnesota with consecutive losses to the Lions and Giants.

Finally, the Packers finish the regular season by running the table against the division (Detroit, at Chicago and at Minnesota) plus Tennessee.

That’s 13-3, which seems reasonable. But so did 15-1, at least until the Giants came to Green Bay with a different idea.