DES MOINES — Republicans dominated the Iowa State Fair’s unofficial political straw poll, sweeping every major race tested as GOP gubernatorial nominee Zach Lahn delivered a particularly lopsided victory over Democrat Rob Sand.
Final results released by Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate showed Lahn and running mate Derek Wulf receiving 1,757 votes, or 63.68 percent, compared with 1,002 votes, or 36.32 percent, for Sand and running mate Dave Muhlbauer.
That gave the Republican ticket a whopping 27.36-point advantage among fairgoers who participated in the voluntary poll.
And Lahn was hardly alone.
Republicans finished on top in the U.S. Senate race and all four U.S. House contests included in the poll:
- Governor: Zach Lahn/Derek Wulf (R) — 1,757 votes, 63.68%; Rob Sand/Dave Muhlbauer (D) — 1,002 votes, 36.32%.
- U.S. Senate: Ashley Hinson (R) — 1,762 votes, 64.03%; Josh Turek (D) — 918 votes, 33.36%; Thomas Laehn (L) — 72 votes, 2.61%.
- 1st Congressional District: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) — 296 votes, 65.92%; Christina Bohannan (D) — 135 votes, 30.07%; Michael Bridgford — 18 votes, 4.01%.
- 2nd Congressional District: Joe Mitchell (R) — 274 votes, 69.72%; Lindsay James (D) — 94 votes, 23.92%; Rick Stewart (L) — 14 votes, 3.56%; Dave Bushaw — 11 votes, 2.80%.
- 3rd Congressional District: Zach Nunn (R) — 876 votes, 64.51%; Sarah Trone Garriott (D) — 482 votes, 35.49%.
- 4th Congressional District: Chris McGowan (R) — 360 votes, 70.73%; Dave Dawson (D) — 149 votes, 29.27%.
Democratic candidates failed to reach 37 percent in any of the six major gubernatorial, Senate or congressional matchups.
Lahn takes campaign back to Northern Iowa
Lahn is not wasting much time following his big State Fair showing before getting back in front of voters.
The Republican candidate’s campaign announced Tuesday that Lahn will hold a meet-and-greet in Clarion on Friday, September 4, from 2:00 p.m. to 3:00 p.m.
The event will be held at the Heartland Museum, 119 Ninth Street SW, Clarion, Iowa 50525.
Clarion is the county seat of Wright County and puts Lahn back in the broader Northern Iowa region as the general-election campaign moves toward its final two months.
The campaign is promoting the event under its “Iowa First” banner, with its announcement telling voters to “Come meet your next governor.”
Lahn has already spent considerable time campaigning in North Iowa. NIT previously reported on Lahn and other Republican gubernatorial contenders as they brought their campaigns to a major GOP gathering in Clear Lake ahead of the June primary.
The Clarion appearance gives voters in the region another opportunity to hear directly from the Republican nominee following his overwhelming showing at the State Fair.
Pate: It’s fun, but November is what counts
There is an important qualification to the eye-popping Republican numbers.
The Iowa State Fair straw poll is not a scientific survey of Iowa voters. Participation was voluntary, with fairgoers stopping at the Iowa Secretary of State’s booth to make their selections.
Pate characterized the State Fair exercise as something that is partly for fun while using the results to remind Iowans about the election that actually counts.
“Traditionally, the straw poll has offered a useful snapshot of how Iowans are feeling headed into an election,” Pate said, while emphasizing the importance of getting voters engaged in the election process.
“With the midterm election approaching on November 3, now is the moment to make sure your voice counts,” Pate said.
Lahn campaign says its movement is growing
The Lahn campaign is nevertheless treating its overwhelming State Fair performance as another indication that political momentum is moving in its direction.
In its latest messages following the fair, Lahn’s campaign thanked supporters for the strong showing and declared that the “Lahn Train” is not stopping.
Lahn has similarly said that his “IOWA FIRST movement is growing,” framing the State Fair showing as evidence that his campaign’s message is connecting with voters.
The messaging makes clear that Lahn intends to use the State Fair result as more than bragging rights from an unofficial poll. His campaign is presenting the result as another sign of momentum heading into the final stretch of the race.
At the State Fair, Lahn continued pushing issues including Iowa agriculture, water quality, education, childhood health and his proposal to put more Iowa-grown food into public schools.
His campaign has also increasingly attacked Sand as a conventional liberal Democrat despite Sand’s effort to present himself as an independent-minded political reformer.
Straw poll tells dramatically different story than scientific survey
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the State Fair result is how dramatically it conflicts with another recent snapshot of the governor’s race.
Seven percent were undecided in that survey, which questioned 712 likely Iowa voters from August 2 through August 4 and carried a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Independent voters were particularly strong for Sand in the Emerson survey, favoring him 58 percent to 32 percent.
So within the same month, Iowans have been presented with two extraordinarily different pictures of the governor’s race: Sand leading Lahn by five points in a scientific likely-voter survey, followed by Lahn trouncing Sand by more than 27 points among participants in the State Fair straw poll.
The enormous difference underscores why the State Fair results cannot be treated as a conventional public-opinion poll. Fairgoers who chose to participate were not randomly selected to represent Iowa’s electorate.
Still, the sheer consistency of the results gives Republicans something to crow about.
The GOP did not merely win the governor’s poll. Republican candidates captured roughly two-thirds of the vote in the Senate contest and across Iowa’s congressional districts as well.
Sand continues pitching cross-party approach
Sand does not appear to have issued a direct public response to the finalized State Fair straw-poll results.
During the fair, however, Sand continued making the argument that Iowa needs to move away from rigid partisan politics and one-party control.
“Our political system is broken, largely because it’s run by two private clubs,” Sand told State Fair attendees during his Political Soapbox appearance.
Sand has argued that merely replacing Republican one-party control with Democratic one-party control would not fix Iowa government. His campaign is instead attempting to attract Democrats, independents and Republicans dissatisfied with the current direction of state government.
Lahn’s campaign has attacked that argument directly, accusing Sand of attempting to distance himself from his history of supporting Democratic candidates and organizations.
That clash could become one of the defining arguments of the fall campaign: Sand presenting himself as a reform-minded candidate willing to work across party lines, while Lahn tries to convince voters that Sand remains firmly rooted in the Democratic political establishment.
For now, both campaigns can point to favorable numbers.
Sand can point to the August scientific poll showing him ahead.
Lahn can point to thousands of Iowa State Fair participants who produced an entirely different verdict — and a Republican sweep so decisive that his campaign is declaring its “Iowa First” movement is growing.
And on September 4, Lahn will take that message back to Northern Iowa, meeting voters face-to-face in Clarion.
The real poll comes Tuesday, November 3.
Democrats were home working while Republicans went to the fair.
So… Dem’s really are miserable while Rep’s thrive. Why do you punch down on these troubled people?