By Geoff Pender, McClatchy Newspapers –
BILOXI, Miss. — Republican voters in Mississippi, the very reddest of the red states, have never been in a position like this: GOP presidential candidates, their fates still in the wind, are here with their hats in hands, showing the love.
They’ve dang-near pandered in advance of Tuesday’s primary. All have frequently invoked God and Constitution while in the Magnolia State.
Nationwide frontrunner Mitt Romney, at a Thursday stop in Pascagoula, gushed: “If the federal government were run more like the government here in Mississippi, the whole country would be a lot better off.” That’s not something Mississippians often hear. He also said he likes grits.
Newt Gingrich, who has to win Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday to stay viable, sounded like he was from around here at recent stops in Jackson and Gulfport, talking up states’ rights. He didn’t promise a chicken in every pot, but promised cheap gas.
“Nothing will help the poor more than the creation of jobs … and gasoline for $2.50 a gallon or less,” Gingrich said. “… People in Connecticut can more afford higher gasoline prices than people in Mississippi.”
Rick Santorum, scheduled to be in Gulfport Saturday, says he’s the conservative’s conservative, and is banking on the three-quarters of Mississippi GOP voters who identified themselves as evangelicals in the 2008 primary to back him.
“I stood tall for the values that the people of Mississippi want to see in their nominee,” Santorum told a crowd in Tupelo. He then called Romney a liar and his supporters called for Gingrich to bow out. “You can change it all, Mississippi,” he said.
Rep. Ron Paul, while not campaigning in Mississippi, is here in spirit, with grass-roots, libertarian-leaning supporters working social media for him. Mississippi has a small but ardent libertarian base, and he could have some traction.
For Mississippi Romney supporters, the cause appears to be mainly that he’s the candidate most able to beat Obama in November.
“I think it’s very important, at the end of the day, that we take the personalities out and get behind the person who can beat Obama,” said GOP state Rep. Casey Eure. “I feel like he has a proven record as a businessman and creating jobs. I think he’ll do reasonably well in Mississippi. I feel like he’ll do well.”
For Gingrich supporters, he best speaks the Deep South conservative language.
“We need drastic change to fix this country and I don’t see drastic change from the other guys,” said John Rhodes, a D’Iberville contractor and local TEA Party leader.
Santorum supporter Barry Neyrey, a computer programmer from Long Beach, said he believes Santorum “is the most conservative and honest and principled.”
“You won’t hear a lot of spin coming out of him,” Neyrey said. “He’s just a regular guy, with morals and values and principles of conservatism and the free market.”
Paul supporter Charlie Mackey Clark, a college librarian from Ocean Springs, is a longtime libertarian and former chair of the state party.
“I’m hard-core,” Clark said. “I was aware of Ron early on, long before he ever became a candidate … This is a movement, not just the election du jour … He’s reaching people.”
Gingrich remains up in the most recent Mississippi poll, released Friday by American Research Group.
Gingrich had 35 percent support among likely GOP primary voters, followed by Romney at 31 percent, Santorum at 20 percent and Paul with 7 percent.
But polls this season have been shifting sands and Santorum last week was drawing larger crowds than Gingrich in Mississippi and his campaign says he’s rapidly gaining ground in the South after beating Gingrich in Tennessee on Super Tuesday.
Mississippi’s primary is late in the game and typically doesn’t matter, with a nominee usually secure by the time it rolls around after Super Tuesday. It also has a rather paltry 40 delegates at stake. Candidates often don’t bother to show up or spend ad money here.
But the GOP contest has rolled on this year, with no one statistically secure in a path to the 1,144 delegates required for the nomination. Coupled with Alabama’s 50 delegates at stake, Tuesday is a Deep South prize all the candidates need.
For Gingrich, it’s do-or-die, by his own campaign’s admission. The Deep South is considered the former Georgia congressman’s home base. A loss here would indicate he has no base outside Georgia.
For Santorum, winning Alabama and Mississippi and forcing Gingrich out would secure his spot as the un-Romney candidate and stop his and Gingrich’s splitting of the party’s right wing vote. In a two-person sprint to the finish in Tampa, he could force a fight at the convention.
Romney’s campaign doesn’t appear to harbor any illusion that he’ll carry Mississippi and Alabama. But he needs to show at least a strong third to fend off Santorum claims that he has no suction with ultra-conservatives and evangelicals.
With proportionality, 25 of Mississippi’s delegates can be split between candidates who get 15 percent or more of the vote. There’s an outside chance Paul could reach that threshold and remain a fly in the ointment of frontrunners.
Many Republican elected leaders — basically all willing to make a public endorsement — back Romney. This includes Sen. Thad Cochran, Gov. Phil Bryant, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and others.
Reeves issued this statement, here in its entirety: “Mitt Romney has the experience to recharge our economy and put Americans back to work. He is a conservative leader whose pro-growth message is resonating with Mississippians.”
Romney has more money, advertising and organization in the Magnolia State and isn’t ceding defeat to Gingrich and Santorum without a fight. The Restore Our Future super PAC that supports him recently dropped $2.7 million on advertising for Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana and Illinois for Romney.
“It’s an uphill battle, but we’re damned organized and working hard and have a lot of people out working,” said Austin Barbour, a Jackson lobbying company owner, state and national Republican leader and nephew of former Gov. Haley Barbour, who’s holding off on endorsement until a nominee is chosen.
Austin’s brother, Henry Barbour, also a mover in the state and national GOP, is also backing Romney, after having backed Rick Perry before he withdrew.
“If I had to handicap it, I would say Santorum is the favorite in Mississippi,” Henry Barbour said. “It’s a little harder for me to say Gingrich. He’s clearly popular and his message resonates, but I think a lot of people think he’s toast and can’t win … (Romney) is clearly the underdog, but he’s got a real chance.”
Barbour likened Gingrich’s situation to Ole Miss’ in the SEC tournament: “He’s got to win, got to run the table, or he has no viable path to victory. He can’t afford to lose nor can Ole Miss.”
Both the Gingrich and Santorum camps said they doubt Romney’s endorsements by the Republican establishment will have a lot of sway with rank-and-file voters.
“Mississippians don’t like to be herded,” said Scott Brewster, Mississippi organizer for Gingrich. “We joke that Romney lost all 82 counties in Mississippi last time, and that this time he might lose 83.”
Santorum’s Mississippi campaign organizer Chris Godbey said Santorum “is having a lot of success with our grassroots efforts here.”
“We’re seeing a lot of evangelicals and TEA Party members who were very active in the statewide elections last year come on board,” Godbey said.
