HAMDEN, CONNECTICUT – Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are locking in their lead among Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants, with Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 29 percent, while U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida trails with 15 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 7 percent, with no other candidate above New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie’s 4 percent.
This compares to the results of a December 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Trump at 28 percent, with 27 percent for Cruz, 14 percent for Rubio and 10 percent for Carson.
Today, 5 percent are undecided, but 46 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.
Trump tops Cruz almost 4-1 on the negative list as 26 percent of Iowa Republican Caucus-goers say they “would definitely not support” Trump, with 7 percent who would not support Cruz.
The biggest loser today is former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who gets only 3 percent support from Republicans, while 26 percent say they “would definitely not support” him.
“The Iowa Republican Caucuses are tight as a tick entering the final two weeks of the campaign. Voters like Sen. Ted Cruz better than Donald Trump and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
“But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues. Trump is way ahead on handling the economy and terrorism.”
“The imbalance in perceived personal qualities may give Cruz a higher ceiling, a key metric entering the home stretch. Only 7 percent of Republicans say they could never vote for Cruz, while 26 percent say no way to Trump,” Brown added.
The economy and jobs is the most important issue for 27 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in deciding their vote, as 18 percent list terrorism; 16 percent say foreign policy. Another 10 percent cite the federal deficit and 8 percent list immigration.
This reverses the results of the December 14 survey, in which 30 percent listed terrorism as the most important issue, with 21 percent focused on the economy and jobs.
Trump can best handle the economy, 46 percent of Republicans say, with 16 percent picking Cruz and 8 percent picking Rubio. Trump is also best handling terrorism, 36 percent of GOP Caucus participants say, with 26 percent for Cruz and 12 percent for Rubio.
Cruz is best on foreign policy, 27 percent of Republicans say, with 24 percent for Trump and 18 percent for Rubio. Trump is best on illegal immigration, 46 percent of GOP Caucus- goers say, with 22 percent for Cruz and 15 percent for Rubio.
Cruz has a 75 – 17 percent favorability rating, with Trump at 61 – 34 percent. Republican Caucus participants give Cruz better grades than Trump on most character issues:
81 – 13 percent that Cruz is honest and trustworthy, compared to 63 – 32 percent for Trump;
81 – 17 percent that Trump has strong leadership qualities, with Cruz at 78 – 16 percent;
81 – 14 percent that Cruz cares about their needs and problems, with 64 – 29 percent for Trump;
76 – 18 percent that Cruz has the right kind of experience to be president, with Trump at 54 – 40 percent;
75 – 17 percent that Cruz shares their values, with 53 – 41 percent for Trump.
Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election, 69 percent of likely Republican Caucus participants say, while 65 percent say Trump has a good chance of winning.
From January 5 – 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 602 Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
