Race for Senate: Ernst leads Braley in new poll

DES MOINES – Neutralizing the traditional Democratic lead among women voters, Republican State Sen. Joni Ernst leads U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democrat, 50 – 44 percent among likely voters in the race to replace U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Ernst leads among men 56 – 39 percent, while Braley leads among women by a smaller 50 – 44 percent margin, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. This survey of likely voters can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

The Republican also leads 50 – 43 percent among a key political group, independent voters, and 87 – 7 percent among GOP voters, while Braley takes Democrats 90 – 7 percent. While l5 percent of Iowa voters say they might change their mind, 84 percent say their mind is made up.

Their U.S. Senate vote is mainly a vote against President Barack Obama, 28 percent of Iowa likely voters say, while 12 percent say it is a vote mainly for Obama and 58 percent say the president is not much of a factor in their Senate vote.

“The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“These independents are perhaps the most important voter bloc in the electorate and State Sen. Joni Ernst is ahead 7 percentage points among them, just about her overall lead. The key to any comeback by U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley will be chipping away at her lead among independents.”

By a 45 – 39 percent margin, Iowa likely voters have a favorable opinion of Ernst. Braley gets a 38 percent favorability rating, while 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

Iowa likely voters favor the Republican on key character traits:
Ernst is honest and trustworthy, voters say 55 – 28 percent, well ahead of Braley’s 45 – 36 percent.
Ernst cares about their needs and problems, voters say 52 – 37 percent, edging Braley’s 48 – 37 percent.
Ernst has strong leadership qualities, voters say 60 – 25 percent, ahead of Braley’s 48 – 34 percent leadership measure.
“Sen. Ernst’s television commercials and campaign have presented her as a born and bred Iowan, who never lost her farm girl values. She should pay her strategists and media folks quite well because up until now they have sold that message effectively,” Brown said. “The fact that more voters think she cares about their needs than does Braley is telling. That is a measurement that many Republicans, even winning GOPers, lose.

“Some pundits back east may have made fun of her shooting hog ads, but they send an effective message to Iowans that she is one of them.

“There is also a message to President Barack Obama in these numbers. Almost three in 10 voters say theirs is mainly a vote against the president, a troubling number for Democrats. Only 12 percent say they are voting to back the president.

“If these results show up in other states, it could produce the kind of wave for which Republicans are hoping.”

From September 10 – 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,167 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

[poll random]