By Seema Mehta, Los Angeles Times –
DES MOINES, Iowa — In Iowa, 2012 has brought an enticing possibility to voters used to being cast aside after their winter caucuses: This year, the place where the race for president began may decide how it ends.
No matter what the scenario for winning the presidency, Iowa and its six electoral votes are central to the mix. Des Moines and Cedar Rapids are among the top media markets in the nation for presidential campaign advertising. President Barack Obama — who bolted to the front of the presidential race in 2008 with his caucus win — and presumed Republican nominee Mitt Romney are spending an inordinate amount of time here.
But the state presents complications for Romney’s central argument, which is that Obama has failed to fix the nation’s economy.
Unemployment in the state is 5.1 percent, well below the national average. New homes are springing up in the suburbs of Des Moines. The farm economy is booming, driven by strong commodity prices and exports — 1 in every 4 rows of soybeans is bound for China.
Romney’s solution, at least for now, has been to play to the frugal Midwesterners who populate the state. A campaign television ad released Friday vowed that on his first day as president he would attack the deficit “starting with $20 billion in savings.”
“By Day 100, President Romney is working toward a balanced budget, making sure the government lives within its means,” the ad continued. “President Romney’s first 100 days: For the people of Iowa, they mean fewer worries about their future and their children’s future.”
That echoed the thrust of his speech in a May visit to Des Moines, when he invoked heartland imagery as he argued against leaving such a burden to future generations.
“A prairie fire of debt is sweeping across Iowa and across the nation, and every day we fail to act we feed that fire with our own lack of resolve,” Romney said. “… This is not just bad economics; this is morally wrong and we must stop it.”
Political analysts say it is a smart argument. The state’s pay-as-you-go ethos is evident; Iowa’s residents carry the lowest average credit card debt of any state.
“We’ve got to get this country out of debt. I’m worried about my grandkids, what it means for them,” said Darrel Hicks, 73, who grows corn and soybeans on 300 acres in Wheatland, on a farm that has been in his family for 125 years. He and his wife, Marlene, raised four sons there, and they have nine grandchildren and one great-grandchild.
“We’re fortunate our kids all have jobs, and live close by, but not everyone does,” Marlene Hicks said, noting their niece’s daughter just graduated from college in California and had difficulty finding work, eventually taking a job that paid $10.60 an hour.
“After four years of college,” Darrel Hicks said incredulously.
Hicks and his wife saw Romney speak last week in Davenport, in the eastern part of the state that is a heavy focus for both campaigns. Vice President Joe Biden will visit the region for two days this week; Romney’s son Tagg is due at the Davenport headquarters Monday.
Biden, Obama and his wife, Michelle, have visited the state nine times this year. Romney has visited three times since April.
“This level of attention this early is unprecedented and a recognition that no matter what model you have in getting to 270 electoral votes, Iowa is in the vast majority of those models,” said Tim Albrecht, spokesman for Republican Gov. Terry Branstad.
Recent polls show the race is tight, which offers Republicans hope given Obama’s 2008 caucus win and his handy victory over Sen. John McCain of Arizona in the general election.
Romney placed second in this year’s caucuses after facing skepticism from socially conservative Republicans, notably in deeply red western Iowa; some still refuse to endorse him. But he could benefit in November from other state contests that will drive those voters to the polls.
A judge who supported gay marriage is up for re-election, in what could be a reprise of the contentious 2010 battle that led to the rejection by voters of three state Supreme Court justices who had voted to allow same-sex couples to marry. And two hot congressional races are unfolding, one of them a well-financed effort by former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack against Rep. Steve King, who has a fiercely loyal following among conservatives.
The race “jacks up conservative energy,” said Matt Strawn, a former state party chairman. “I believe the prospect of a second Obama term is motivation enough, but this also gets them off the couch to make phone calls, to knock on doors, to do everything possible for the Republican ticket.”
Romney will need volunteer enthusiasm because Obama has a gaping organizational advantage. After the 2008 campaign, Democrats kept paid workers in the state. They showed up at county fairs and Fourth of July parades long before the political world’s eyes turned to Iowa as the caucuses approached.
“We never left,” said Erin Seidler, a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in Iowa.
The Obama campaign has at least nine offices in the state, with many more expected in coming weeks, and dozens of paid staffers. Their Des Moines headquarters is now housed in a former video store that was used by the Romney campaign for a month before the caucuses. Signs of 2008 abound — newspaper front pages from the caucus win, a panel of an Andy Warhol-esque painting of Obama from the 2008 headquarters. Weekly phone banks drive the campaign message, turn out supporters for visits and recruit volunteers to register voters.
Abby Kennedy spends about 10 hours a week volunteering for Obama. When she speaks with Iowans who are struggling or have grown weary of the sluggish pace of the economic recovery, Kennedy said, she reminds them of what the president inherited. But she acknowledged that much has changed since the heady days of 2008.
“He’s not the new kid on the block,” said Kennedy, 32, who described supporters’ feelings thusly: “It’s more of a mature love, less of a puppy love.”
Obama, speaking to supporters in Des Moines in May, emphasized that his work was unfinished.
“This was a deep crisis; it didn’t happen overnight,” he said. “And we never thought it was going to be solved overnight.”
While Democrats like Kennedy have been working steadily on Obama’s behalf, Republicans are just now getting organized. After the Jan. 3 caucuses, Romney staffers scattered to other states; only in recent weeks did they start building a general-election machine.
Romney is at a disadvantage because the state GOP, normally a partner in such efforts, is in shambles, taken over by Ron Paul loyalists and bleeding money. Still, Republicans pledge a massive effort.
“Volunteers and talented staff across the state will knock on more doors, make more phone calls and talk with more voters in support of Gov. Romney and our Republican ticket than ever before,” said Tom Szold, a Republican National Committee spokesman for the state.
