By Michelle Kaufman, McClatchy Newspapers –
On the streets of South Florida this weekend, and around much of the country, the sports talk is of the NBA champion Heat and its Three Kings. But 4,400 miles away, on the hallowed grass at the All England Club, the buzz surrounds another trio of champions: Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.
Wimbledon begins Monday, and barring a monumental upset, one of those three men will surely hoist the winner’s silver cup July 8.
The past nine Grand Slam tournaments have been won by Djokovic or Nadal, they’ve met in the past four finals, and if you add 16-time Grand Slam champion Federer to the mix, the threesome has combined to win 28 of the past 29 majors.
Nadal got the string going seven years ago at the 2005 French Open. The only outsider to sneak in a Grand Slam title was Juan Martin del Potro of Argentina, who won the 2009 U.S. Open after knocking off Nadal and Federer back-to-back. There is no reason to believe anyone but those three will win Wimbledon 2012.
Djokovic, the top seed, is ranked No. 1 in the world and the defending champion. Federer has won Wimbledon six times and is hungry to win a seventh as he approaches his 31st birthday. He was eliminated in the quarterfinals the past two summers, by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2011 and Tomas Berdych in 2010. Federer has gone two and a half years without winning a Grand Slam title.
Then there’s two-time Wimbledon champion Nadal, who has made five finals at the All England Club and is fresh off his record seventh title at the French Open, where he beat Djokovic in a rainy final.
It’s a ‘trivalry’
John McEnroe, working the ESPN booth at Wimbledon, said the “trivalry” is good for men’s tennis.
“I think any sport that’s a one-on-one sport needs rivalries,” McEnroe said. “I think that’s what’s hurt our sport for a while, that we didn’t seem to have that, and with the Nadal-Federer, obviously, and then Djokovic in the mix, to me has made it more interesting and in some ways more historic as we saw at the French.”
So, does anyone else have a chance?
“Andy Murray would be the other guy that would have the next-best chance,” McEnroe said. “It seems like there’s a little bit more distance. It’s not as far as I think people think, but he has been unable to break through with these guys, and that just shows you how great they are.”
If Murray, Great Britain’s big hope, doesn’t do it, the next-likeliest candidates are big-serving, 6-9 American John Isner, 6-5 Canadian Milos Raonic, Berdych or Tsonga.
“To see someone have to beat three of these four guys seems almost impossible,” McEnroe said. “It’s a string of events that would have to occur for anyone else besides one of those four guys. If someone gets hurt, you don’t want that to happen, or someone gets upset . . . that would be the only scenario where someone could go all the way, otherwise at the moment it’s still going to be one of these guys.”
On the women’s side, it’s a whole different story. Nobody has dominated. The past six Grand Slam titles have been won by six different women. Maria Sharapova, the new world No. 1, just won the French Open, completing a career Grand Slam.
The previous five Slams were won by Victoria Azarenka (2012 Australian Open), Samantha Stosur (2011 U.S. Open), Petra Kvitova (2011 Wimbledon), Li Na (2011 French Open), Kim Clijsters (2011 Australian Open).
Serena Williams has won 13 Grand Slam titles, including four Wimbledon crowns, but none since 2010. She lost in the first round at the French Open. Nonetheless, she is a favorite along with Sharapova.
“In my book, Serena is a clear favorite,” ESPN analyst Cliff Drysdale said. “I think she was the best player in women’s tennis going into the French championship. So she loses a match on clay. It’s not her best surface by any means. You can name anybody including Sharapova, and you put them head to head, Serena is the clear favorite. I still think she’s the best player in the business. I’d be very surprised if she doesn’t win.”
Motivation
Added Chris Evert: “I feel like Serena, she can’t be too happy with that first-round loss at the French. I think grass is so much more suited to her game and her style, and she’s so much more comfortable on the grass. Knowing how competitive she is, she’s going to be full blast. She has to definitely be one of the top ones, if not the top one, in my book.”
Williams is 8-2 against Sharapova, but the Russian is playing great tennis of late after struggling with shoulder injuries.
“Maria has to be coming into Wimbledon with that much more confidence,” Evert said. “Her serve has got to work on the grass, and it started to get better at the French. The double-faults were down and she started to, I think, free herself up and serve the way she wanted to serve. I think she’s looking good.”
McEnroe said Williams and Sharapova have “distanced themselves” from the pack, and he expects one of the two to win. Another player to watch is former No. 1 Kim Clijsters, who has played a limited schedule this year and is retiring for the second time after the U.S. Open.
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PLAYERS TO WATCH
MEN
Novak Djokovic: Defending champ, No. 1, was riding a 27-match Grand Slam win streak until Nadal beat him in a rain-soaked French Open final that stretched over two days.
Rafael Nadal: Once upon a time, the Spaniard was considered only a clay specialist. Not anymore. He can win on all surfaces, has won Wimbledon twice and made five finals.
Roger Federer: The six-time Wimbledon champion hasn’t won a major in two and a half years and been bounced from Wimbledon in the quarters the past two years. In other words, he’s hungry.
Andy Murray: The weight of all of Great Britain is on his shoulders as he tries to finally win a Grand Slam once and for all.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: If anyone can topple the Big Three, this talented Frenchman is a good bet. He’s got the speed, strength and groundstrokes.
Others to watch: Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer, John Isner
WOMEN
Maria Sharapova: Tennis’ glamour girl won her first Wimbledon title at age 17 in 2004. She is back to No. 1 after winning the French Open to complete a career Grand Slam.
Serena Williams: She has won 13 Grand Slams and four Wimbledon titles but hasn’t won a major since 2010. Williams was looking very strong heading into the French Open, but lost in the first round. Expect much better on the grass.
Victoria Azarenka: She reached No. 1 in the world, won the 2012 Australian Open and was on a roll. But her game slipped in recent months. Remains to be seen how she’ll respond.
Petra Kvitova: The defending champion was a surprise winner last year and hasn’t matched that performance since. She lost in the French Open semis to Sharapova and in the first round last week at the Wimbledon tuneup at Eastbourne.
Kim Clijsters: The bubbly mom is retiring after the U.S. Open, hasn’t played much this year because of injuries, but she’s a former world No. 1 and capable of making a deep run.
Others to watch: Agnieszka Radwanska, Li Na, Samantha Stosur
